Montague, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

155
FXUS66 KMFR 191809
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1009 AM PST Fri Dec 19 2025

>updated Aviation Discussion.

.DISCUSSION (Today through Christmas)...

Key Points:

* Today/Tonight: Minor to isolated moderate Impacts
    - Snow: Snow levels dropping to ~3000 tonight
        - However, moisture ending as these lower levels unfold
        - Roads/Passes around crater Lake could be hazardous
    - Rain: Mostly ending this afternoon
        - Widepsread flooding not expected
        - Tonight: Myrtle Point (South Fork Coquille River)
            - Now forecast to stay just below minor flood stage
    - Wind: Strong winds for eastside areas continue today

* Sunday - Monday: Minor to Moderate impacts
    - Moderate rainfall: coastal areas, northern Cali, and eastside
    - Light Snowfall for elevations mainly above 4500ft:
       - Mainly Cascades and northern California

* Dec 23rd - 25th: Potential Multi-Day Event
    - Snow levels dropping to around 3500-4500 ft
    - Heavy rain potential for northern California
    - Heavy Snow potential for Northern California
    - Potential for Moderate to Major impacts with travel concerns

Further Details:

We will continue to see persistent troughing over/near the Gulf of
Alaska. This will continue to bring rounds of precipitation across
the region which may result in moderate to isolated heavy rain,
light snowfall, and breezy wind speeds/gusts. A pattern change could
evolve Wednesday of next week as this area of low pressure moves
south off the coast of California through Christmas.

Snowfall through tonight continues to indicate relatively light
accumulations at the forecast elevations and therefore limited
impacts. Rainfall amounts will start to significantly diminish today
after the atmospheric river (AR) comes to an end. While widespread
flooding is not anticipated, there may be isolated areas of nuisance
type flooding as rivers are currently running low. A change in river
stage forecast heights occurred as QPF came down, and Myrtle Point
(South Fork Coquille River) is now forecast to stay just below Minor
Flood stage. It will peak tonight between roughly 4pm and 10pm).
This is the only river gauge to note for this AR as all other gauges
are not forecast to be of concern.

Moderate rainfall amounts expected Sunday into Monday, especially
northern California. Snow amounts through this stretch do not look
impactful and will be limited to higher elevations, especially
along the Cascades north of Highway 140.

Around Christmas Eve/Christmas, there is increasing confidence for
impactful rain in addition to potential heavy snowfall across
northern California. This will coincide with the pattern change as a
stronger upper low strengthens off the coast of California. There
will be an associated strong surface low as well. Models are in
pretty good agreement here, so we could have travel concerns around
this timeframe for heavy rain. Snow amounts continue to fluctuate,
but confidence is increasing for heavy snowfall potential across
northern California.

-Guerrero

&&

.AVIATION...19/18 TAFs...Along the coast and just offshore, ceilings
are expected to gradually improve from north to south as the front
moves south during the day and rain transitions to showers as a
colder air mass moves in. Ceilings should improve to VFR later in
the afternoon into this evening. Marine stratus could form along the
south coast with IFR ceilings, with North Bend expected to remain
VFR.

Inland, Ceilings are also expected to gradually improve as the front
moves south and rain transitions to off/on showers. Ceilings will
improve to VFR at Roseburg, but the higher terrain will still remain
partly obscured until at least 0z. Medford should remain VFR through
this evening. Stable conditions are expected tonight. This along
with ample low level moisture will set the table up for fog and low
clouds for the interior valleys, including Medford and Roseburg.

There should be enough cloud cover to keep low clouds and fog from
forming at Klamath Falls. However confidence on this is not high,
due to the fact there could be brief periods of clearing which could
result in fog and low cloud formation. Watch for updates on this.
-Petrucelli

&&

.MARINE...Updated 330 AM PST Friday, December 19, 2025...A strong
cold front will continue to exit the region this morning.
Gradually, winds will shift to the northwest and ease later this
morning and precipitation will turn to showers. Even so, seas will
remain elevated through early Saturday morning. We`ve added a
small craft advisory from 7 am Friday to 7 am Saturday to account
for the steep seas. Calmer conditions are possible over the
weekend before active weather returns early next week.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for ORZ029>031.

     High Wind Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for ORZ030-031.

CA...Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ084-085.

     High Wind Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 7 AM PST this
     morning for PZZ350-356-370-376.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM PST Saturday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$